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2024-12-14 11:17:02

After the publication of CPI in the United States, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December has almost been fully priced. According to CME's "Fed Observation", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 2.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 97.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 1.7%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 71.2%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 27.1%.Analysts commented on the US CPI in November: the data is in line with expectations, and there may be four interest rate cuts next year. Brian Jacobsen, chief economist of Annex Wealth Management, said: "There is nothing unexpected in the CPI report, and everything is in line with expectations. Housing cost is still the main driver of inflation. With the employment report and inflation report, nothing can stop the Fed from cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next week. What will be exciting is the summary of the Fed's economic forecast. There may be four interest rate cuts in 2025, and inflation will eventually fall to the target level. "Market News: Ukrainian President Zelensky used his first meeting with Donald Trump since the US election to show that Ukraine needs security in any negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.


After the release of CPI data, the yield of US Treasury bonds fluctuated and fell, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds reported 4.236%. The yield of two-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.149%, and the yield curve of 2/10 US Treasury bonds steepened to 8.7 basis points.Apple introduced Siri with ChatGPT, and on Wednesday, Apple released software updates for iPhone, iPad and Mac, including Siri with ChatGPT. This is also a major victory for OpenAI, because it shows its most important products to millions of iPhone users.Analyst Anna: It is expected that the CPI report in November will show the core inflation rate of 0.3% for the fourth consecutive month. This is consistent with the annual inflation increase of more than 3%, which is higher than the Fed's target of 2%. Since the middle of the year, the anti-inflation process of core CPI seems to have stagnated. There is no doubt that this will be a topic to be discussed at the FOMC meeting in December.


After the US CPI was released, spot gold rose by $5 to $2,696.66 per ounce.The Italian neo-Nazi organization planned to assassinate the Prime Minister, which was foiled by the police. According to the British Daily Telegraph on the 11th, an Italian neo-Nazi organization was accused of planning to assassinate Prime Minister Giorgiya meloni and World Economic Forum President klaus schwab, and the assassination plot was foiled by the police. (World Wide Web)STOXX Europe 600 Index rose by 0.25% after the US CPI data was released.

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